As of November 30, 2025, it is too early to determine whether the startup landscape will be dominated by millions of one‑ to two‑person AI‑enabled companies.

Evidence for the trend:

• Generative AI tools (e.g., OpenAI’s GPT models, GitHub Copilot, Claude, etc.) have significantly reduced the cost and time required for solo founders to build software products, content, and workflows, and there is extensive reporting on “AI solopreneurs,” micro‑SaaS, and one‑person AI startups scaling to meaningful revenue. These trends strongly support the direction of Chamath’s claim, but they mostly consist of qualitative case studies and early‑stage numbers rather than hard, economy‑wide measurements.
• Startup tooling, infrastructure, and distribution (serverless platforms, no‑code/low‑code tools, app stores, SaaS marketplaces) have continued to lower fixed costs and headcount needs. Combined with AI coding and content tools, a single person can now build what used to require small teams, again supporting the plausibility of many more very small firms.

Evidence against calling it “already correct”:

• There is no robust 2023–2025 data showing that the overall startup landscape is now dominated by one‑ to two‑person companies or that we are anywhere near “a million to hundreds of millions” such firms created because of AI. Public statistics on new business formation, venture‑backed startups, and high‑growth tech companies still show a mix of sizes; many of the headline AI companies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Inflection, xAI, major frontier‑model labs) are large, capital‑intensive, and labor‑intensive organizations.
• The prediction’s timescale is “over the coming years,” and the claim is structural: that the typical or dominant startup form becomes tiny AI‑leveraged teams. Structural shifts of that magnitude generally take longer than the roughly two‑year window since the prediction to be clearly confirmed.

Because:

• The mechanisms Chamath describes (AI enabling very small teams) are clearly emerging and supported by current evidence, but
• We lack definitive, quantitative proof that the startup ecosystem is already dominated by millions of 1–2 person AI‑tooled companies, and
• The prediction is explicitly about a multi‑year future endpoint rather than 2024–2025 specifically,

…the fairest assessment as of late 2025 is that the prediction’s correctness is inconclusive rather than clearly right or wrong yet.