Chamath’s claim is explicitly about the ultimate structure of the AI application ecosystem (“it’s going to end up as the open web”), so it’s a long‑run prediction. As of November 2025, only ~2 years have passed, and the market is still evolving rapidly in both directions.

Evidence for an “open web / open models” trajectory

• Major firms now release powerful open‑weight models that anyone can download and deploy on their own infrastructure. Meta’s Llama 3 and Llama 3.1 (including a 405B-parameter model) are distributed as open weights and made available across multiple clouds, explicitly positioned as broadly usable building blocks rather than a single locked-down platform. (arstechnica.com)
• Companies like Mistral AI, along with many others, have released numerous open‑weight models under permissive licenses (e.g., Apache 2.0) that can be self‑hosted and freely built upon. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Hugging Face’s hub surpassed 1 million hosted models in 2024, functioning as a decentralized repository where anyone can publish, fork, and run models, much closer to an “open web” than a single proprietary store. (arstechnica.com)
• A 2025 MIT–Hugging Face study shows open models are now downloaded at massive scale globally, with Chinese and US ecosystems both heavily using open‑source or open‑weight models, underscoring how central open access has become to AI development. (arynews.tv)

Evidence for an “app‑store / controlled platform” trajectory

• OpenAI launched the GPT Store in January 2024, a curated marketplace for custom GPTs built on its proprietary models, with review, policy compliance, and centralized distribution—explicitly likened to an app store. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In 2025 OpenAI expanded this into a broader app‑store‑like platform for ChatGPT, with an SDK, branded third‑party apps (e.g., Spotify, Zillow), monetization and in‑chat commerce, and a ranked app directory—very similar in structure and control to mobile app stores. (businessinsider.com)
• Microsoft is also rolling out agent/app stores around Copilot, such as the Microsoft 365 Copilot agent store and the Microsoft Security Store, where businesses browse and deploy AI agents and SaaS integrations from within Microsoft’s ecosystem. (theverge.com)

Why the prediction is still unresolved

• Both models coexist at large scale today: open‑weight models and decentralized hosting look like an open web, while GPT‑style stores and enterprise agent marketplaces look like tightly controlled app stores.
• The ongoing acceleration of open‑source/open‑weight models and tooling suggests real momentum toward an open ecosystem, but proprietary platforms with store‑like economics are simultaneously consolidating distribution and user attention.
• Because the claim is about where things “end up,” and current evidence supports a hybrid landscape with no clear, stable equilibrium yet, it is too early to say whether the ecosystem will ultimately resemble the open web more than a controlled app‑store model.

Given this, the correct classification is “inconclusive (too early)”, not clearly right or wrong at this point.