Summary:

• The core of Chamath’s prediction — rate cuts starting in 2024 coinciding with U.S. equities doing “pretty well” in a broadly positive way — did come true.
• However, his suggested mechanism of large cash balances moving out of money market funds is not strongly supported by the data; money market assets actually grew to record levels.

1. Did rate cuts start in 2024?
Yes. After holding rates steady for most of 2024, the Federal Reserve began cutting in September 2024 and delivered three cuts by December, totaling 1 percentage point, bringing the federal funds target range down to 4.25–4.50%. (broadway.bank)
This matches his timing: cuts began in 2024, not later.

2. Did U.S. equity markets “do pretty well” around that period?
Yes, decisively.

• The S&P 500 delivered a total return of about 25% in 2024, following a strong 2023. (broadway.bank)
• The S&P 500 Equal Weight Total Return index (a better gauge of breadth than the cap‑weighted index) returned about 13% in 2024. (ycharts.com)
• The Russell 2000 small‑cap index had a 2024 total return of ~11.5%, also solidly positive. (en.wikipedia.org)

Taken together, large caps, equal‑weight large caps, and small caps all had double‑digit total returns in 2024. That supports his claim that equity markets were set up to “do pretty well.”

3. Was the move “broad” or narrowly driven?
This part is more mixed but still broadly supportive:

• One analysis notes the S&P 500’s 25% 2024 return was heavily driven by AI‑linked mega‑caps (Nvidia and other “Magnificent 7” names), which contributed a disproportionate share of gains. (rbcwealthmanagement.com)
• At the same time, 7 of 11 S&P 500 sectors delivered double‑digit returns in 2024, and equal‑weight and small‑cap indices posted solid positive years, indicating gains were not confined only to a tiny corner of the market. (broadway.bank)

So while leadership was concentrated, performance was still broadly positive across much of the equity universe, which is directionally consistent with his “broad positive move” language.

4. Did “large cash balances” really leave money market funds to drive this?
Evidence here contradicts his specific mechanism:

• U.S. mutual fund data from the Investment Company Institute show total money market mutual fund assets rose, not fell: roughly $6.0T in January 2024 vs. $6.88T in January 2025, and similar year‑over‑year increases in April and August. (idc.org)
• A Barron’s article reported record money‑market fund assets around $7.0T as of early March 2025, underscoring that investors continued to keep very large balances in cash‑like vehicles despite rate cuts. (barrons.com)

This suggests there was not a massive, visible exodus of cash out of money market funds; if anything, balances stayed high or grew, even as equities performed well. Some re‑risking certainly took place (e.g., big inflows to equity ETFs in 2024–2025), but it does not look like the kind of large, clean rotation out of money markets that his quote implies. (reuters.com)

Conclusion:

• Correct: Rate cuts began in 2024, and U.S. equities overall had very strong performance with positive returns across large‑cap, equal‑weight, and small‑cap indices. This validates the main directional prediction that “equity markets…do pretty well” as the cutting cycle began.
• Partially incorrect: The justification that this would be driven by “money…need[ing] to find a home once rates drop” via large outflows from money market funds did not materialize; money market assets remained elevated or hit records.

Netting those points, the prediction is best classified as right on its main outcome (strong, broadly positive equity performance as cuts started in 2024), albeit with a flawed explanation of the underlying flows.