Condition check (rate‑cut cycle)

• After holding the policy rate at 5.25–5.50% from July 2023, the Federal Reserve began an easing cycle with its first rate cut in late summer 2024 (variously dated to August or the September 18, 2024 meeting in market commentary).(franklinresources.com)
• By definition, once the Fed started cutting and continued to discuss further reductions, markets were in the regime Sacks described (probability of cuts dominating hikes, i.e., the tightening cycle effectively over).

Outcome: growth‑stock & broad equity rally

• Franklin Templeton’s analysis notes that from the first cut of this cycle (August 2024) through August 20, 2025, the S&P 500 rose roughly 16%, consistent with historical patterns of strong equity performance during expansionary easing phases.(franklinresources.com)
• Growth‑heavy indexes rallied even more: Nasdaq’s September 2025 scorecard reports the Nasdaq‑100 at new all‑time highs, up 17.5% year‑to‑date through Q3 2025, with most Nasdaq indexes gaining.(nasdaq.com)
• The Nasdaq‑100 level progression (20,000 in July 2024, 22,000 in December 2024, 23,000 in July 2025, 24,000 in September 2025) shows a sustained surge from around the start of the easing cycle onward, underscoring a broad growth‑stock valuation rally.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Additional market commentary on this cycle characterizes year one of the current rate‑cutting phase as delivering strong double‑digit S&P 500 gains, and highlights that stocks have historically performed well in the second year of rate‑cut cycles too.(finance.yahoo.com)

Outcome: distressed / commercial real estate

• Private‑market commercial property values (Green Street’s CPPI) stopped falling and turned modestly positive: the all‑property index was up 4.1% year‑over‑year in May 2025 and about 2.7% over the prior 12 months by August 2025, indicating stabilization and mild recovery from earlier declines.(greenstreet.com)
• Other analysis notes that U.S. commercial property values fell about 22% from their April 2022 peak to a December 2024 bottom, then recovered about 5% in 2024 and were marginally positive in 2025, but still hovered around a 20% drawdown, with distress elevated in highly levered segments like offices.(linkedin.com)
• At the same time, several sources emphasize that much of commercial real estate—especially office—remains under significant stress (high vacancies, deep price drops, rising delinquencies), and that Fed cuts have not fully “fixed” the sector.(franknez.com)

Evaluation

• Sacks’ conditional claim was: if the Fed entered a rate‑cut cycle (odds of cuts > hikes), then public market valuations—“particularly” growth stocks and distressed real estate—would rally during that cycle, with “everything” becoming more valuable as rates moved lower.
• The core mechanism he described did play out for public equities, especially growth stocks: once markets transitioned into an easing regime, major equity indexes (S&P 500, Nasdaq‑100) saw broad, substantial rallies consistent with his expectation.
• For distressed real estate, the picture is more mixed: values appear to have bottomed and recovered modestly, but the sector is far from a clean "everything rallies" scenario, with ongoing distress in office and other leveraged segments. Still, the direction of change since the onset of cuts has been stabilization-to-slight‑recovery rather than continued collapse.

Given that the central, testable part of the conditional—a broad rally in public market valuations, especially growth stocks, during the rate‑cut cycle—has clearly occurred, while distressed real estate has at least stabilized and modestly rebounded from its trough, the prediction is best classified as right, albeit somewhat overstated in its "everything’s going to rally" phrasing for commercial real estate specifically.