Chamath’s prediction was that San Francisco would continue its existing progressive policy and fiscal “experiment” — including covering growing deficits with borrowing/one‑offs — without major structural reform for at least another decade from 2023.

By late 2025, that core “no major reform for a decade” assumption has already been broken:

1. Political direction clearly shifted away from the prior experiment. In November 2024, voters elected Daniel Lurie, a self‑described centrist/moderate Democrat who ran explicitly on “accountability, service and change” and a tougher approach to crime, drugs, and homelessness, defeating incumbent mayor London Breed. (theguardian.com) A Washington Post overview describes a “vibe shift” toward more centrist, pragmatic governance with a more moderate Board of Supervisors, focusing on public safety and business‑friendliness rather than the prior ultra‑progressive status quo. (washingtonpost.com)

2. Fiscal policy moved from patching deficits to structural reform. Breed’s administration had been closing large COVID‑era budget gaps with one‑time federal American Rescue Plan funds and other temporary measures, leaving an ongoing structural deficit. (sfmayor.org) Lurie, inaugurated January 8, 2025, explicitly rejected that model: in January he told department heads that the “era of one‑time or Band‑Aid solutions is over” and pledged to eliminate $1 billion in “overspending” by changing the city’s structural deficit rather than using one‑offs. (sfstandard.com) His May 30, 2025 proposed budget for FY 2025–26 and 2026–27 closes roughly an $800+ million two‑year deficit through ongoing cuts and structural changes (eliminating 1,400 positions, trimming underperforming contracts, and ending the practice of using one‑time funds for ongoing costs), and sets aside $400 million in reserves, which the mayor’s office and independent civic groups explicitly describe as structural corrections rather than continued fiscal experimentation. (sf.gov)

3. Policy on drugs/crime has also materially hardened. The city has moved away from a purely harm‑reduction model toward an abstinence‑oriented “recovery first” drug policy and granted the new mayor emergency powers to tackle the fentanyl crisis, reflecting a clear shift from the earlier, more permissive approach that critics labeled the “experiment.” (apnews.com) State‑level changes such as California’s Proposition 36, which increased penalties and allowed more felony charges for certain theft and drug crimes, further underscore a broader move away from the earlier, more lenient regime that underpinned that experiment. (en.wikipedia.org)

Although the 10‑year window (to ~2033) has not elapsed, the prediction hinged on continuity—that the same progressive/fiscal experiment would run uninterrupted for “at least a decade.” The election of a centrist change‑candidate plus early, large‑scale structural fiscal and policy shifts show that continuity has already been broken well before the decade mark. On standard forecasting logic, that is enough to score the prediction as wrong, rather than merely “too early to tell.”