Jason’s prediction was that over the next several years a significant number of VC firms would either shut down or effectively become “zombie funds” that only manage existing portfolios and stop raising new funds or leading new investments.

By late 2025, multiple industry data points show this has indeed been happening at scale:

• PitchBook data (reported in October 2024) notes that about 45% of roughly 25,000 venture investors had made no investments in 2024, and explicitly characterizes this large inactive cohort as the “ballooning ranks of the zombie funds”—firms that can’t raise from LPs or write new checks but continue to exist managing old portfolios and collecting fees. (wolfstreet.com)
• Analysis of 2025 U.S. VC fundraising finds that hundreds of VC firms are now classified as “zombies,” with an estimated 574 zombie firms in 2025—a ~50% year‑over‑year increase—as fundraising fell ~34% in the first half of 2025. These zombies are described as unable to raise new funds or invest, fitting Jason’s description. (linkedin.com)
• A 2025 Forbes interview on private equity and VC’s “great cull” reports “hundreds of zombie funds that haven’t returned capital and can’t raise again”, and notes that fundraising for traditional early‑stage VC has become “nearly impossible” without realized returns—again matching the idea that many firms are stuck merely managing old portfolios. (forbes.com)
• The CEO of EQT, one of the largest private‑capital firms, stated in 2025 that out of more than 15,000 private‑capital firms globally, only about 5,000 have raised a fund in the last seven years and that up to 80% could become “zombie firms” over the next decade, implying that around 10,000 already can’t raise fresh capital. (ft.com)
• Broader fundraising data show a sustained slump: global private‑equity/VC fundraising in 2025 is well below 2021 peaks, with sharply fewer fund closings, indicating many managers are failing to raise successor vehicles and are effectively stuck running off existing funds. (wsj.com)

Jason did not give a precise cutoff date or a specific percentage; he only claimed that a lot of VC firms would lose their seats in the “musical chairs” and either shut down or end up as zombie funds over the ensuing years. By late 2025, the documented existence of hundreds to thousands of such zombie or non‑viable firms, alongside a clear consolidation and fundraising drought, matches that qualitative prediction. The trend he described has already materialized at meaningful scale and is widely recognized in industry analyses, so the prediction is best judged as right.