Jason @ 00:56:13Right
venture
Following the 2021–2022 bubble, a large number of venture capital firms launched in the prior cycle will either shut down or become effectively non‑operating 'zombie funds' over the subsequent several years (through roughly the late 2020s).
there's a lot of shutdowns of venture firms. I think a lot of venture firms are going to shut down. This could be zombie funds.View on YouTube
Explanation
Jason’s prediction was that, after the 2021–2022 bubble, many venture firms launched in that cycle would either shut down or become effectively non‑operating “zombie funds” over the following several years.
By 2025 there is strong evidence that this dynamic is already well underway:
- PitchBook data cited by Fortune show the number of U.S. “zombie” venture firms (defined as firms that raised a fund in the prior six years but made no new investments over a multiyear window) rose from 382 at the end of 2021 to 574 by early 2025—roughly a 50% jump.(fortune.com)
- Analysis drawing on PitchBook data notes that around 45% of roughly 14,000 venture investors made no investments at all in 2024, described as the “ballooning ranks of the zombie funds” that can’t raise new LP capital and mainly just manage old portfolios for fees.(wolfstreet.com)
- In Europe, the number of active VCs (those doing at least one deal per year) fell about 30% between 2022 and 2024; newer funds in particular have “partially stopped doing investments,” which industry participants explicitly link to a rise in zombie funds as LPs grow impatient for returns.(sifted.eu)
- In Canada, industry reporting describes a growing set of VC funds that can’t raise new vehicles but continue to manage legacy portfolios—explicitly labeled “zombie funds” that linger until conditions improve or they quietly die.(thelogic.co)
- Broader private‑capital analysis from senior industry figures (e.g., EQT’s CEO) anticipates thousands more firms globally becoming zombies or disappearing amid a difficult fundraising environment over the rest of the decade, reinforcing that the shake‑out is real and ongoing.(ft.com)
While the full outcome through the “late 2020s” is not yet observable, the core claim—that a large number of venture firms from the prior boom would shut down or effectively become zombie funds in the ensuing years—has clearly been borne out by mid‑decade data and industry consensus. Therefore this prediction is best judged as right in direction and substance, even if the eventual scale may grow further as the cycle plays out.