As of November 30, 2025, nothing close to a $1 trillion federal bailout or backstop of coastal real‑estate–linked property insurance has occurred. Existing federal programs dealing with housing and catastrophe risk (e.g., TARP at $700 billion in 2008 for financial institutions, the Treasury’s commitments to Fannie Mae/Freddie Mac around $200 billion, and the long‑running National Flood Insurance Program with debts in the tens of billions) are far smaller in scale and predate Chamath’s 2023 prediction rather than being new responses to a Florida‑triggered insurance collapse. (en.wikipedia.org)

In Florida specifically, the state’s Reinsurance to Assist Policyholders (RAP) backstop has not blown up; instead, it has been under‑used. Florida lawmakers actually reduced the RAP program’s authorized funding from $2 billion to $900 million and pulled back about $1.1–2.1 billion in unused reinsurance support, while also repealing the separate FORA program—moves that lessen, not socialize, the state’s exposure, and there has been no federal assumption of those obligations. (insurancebusinessmag.com)

Because Chamath framed this as happening "at some point" in the future, with no explicit time horizon, and the hypothesized trigger event (state reinsurance insolvency leading to a ~$1T federal rescue) has not yet occurred—but could in principle still happen over coming decades—the prediction cannot be called right or definitively wrong at this time. It remains inconclusive (too early).