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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:41:25Wrong
economy
The U.S. economy will enter a recession over the 2–3 quarters following Q3 2023 (i.e., sometime between Q4 2023 and Q2 2024), which will in turn lead the Federal Reserve to begin cutting interest rates around mid‑2024.
we are betting on increasingly is that consumer demand has basically stopped. So you can see here Adyen is down 50% since the beginning of the year...So so that's one thing, which is this is a big bet that consumption is slowing and shrinking. The economy will be in a recession over these next 2 or 3 quarters, which will give the fed the motivation and the justification to lower rates starting in the middle of next year.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction has two linked parts—both miss what actually happened:

  1. Recession timing (Q4 2023–Q2 2024)

    • The NBER, the official arbiter of U.S. recessions, still lists the most recent business‑cycle peak in February 2020 and trough in April 2020, with no later recession designated as of 2025. (nber.org)
    • BEA data show positive real GDP growth in all of the relevant quarters: Q4 2023 grew at an annual rate of 3.3%, Q1 2024 at 1.6%, and Q2 2024 at 2.8%. (bea.gov)
    • That combination (continued expansion, no NBER recession call) means the U.S. did not enter a recession in the 2–3 quarters after Q3 2023.

  2. Fed rate‑cut timing (“starting in the middle of next year”)

    • The Federal Reserve held policy rates steady through mid‑2024 and did not begin easing in that window.
    • The first cut of the post‑hiking cycle came on September 18, 2024, when the FOMC lowered the federal funds target range by 50 bps to 4.75–5.00%, widely reported as the first rate cut since March 2020. (federalreserve.gov)
    • A further 25‑bp cut in December 2024 took the range down to 4.25–4.50%, confirming that the easing cycle started in late 2024, not mid‑2024. (federalreserve.gov)

Because (a) no recession occurred in the specified Q4 2023–Q2 2024 window, and (b) the Fed did not start cutting rates around mid‑2024 but instead in September 2024, Chamath’s combined prediction is wrong.