Friedberg predicted that events like Hurricane Otis would be early catalysts for a multi‑year, cascading downward repricing of high‑risk coastal real estate, primarily via unaffordable or unavailable insurance forcing owners to sell at lower values.

Since late 2023, there is clear evidence that this mechanism has begun operating in multiple coastal regions:

• In southwest Florida (Lee County / Fort Myers, heavily hit by Hurricane Ian), insurance premiums spiked, insurers pulled back, and home values fell more than 10% year‑over‑year and ~16% below pre‑storm levels; local real‑estate and finance experts explicitly attribute this to high insurance costs shrinking the buyer pool and pressuring sellers to cut prices.(opb.org)
• In coastal Lafitte, Louisiana, where flood and storm risk is high, homeowners saw premiums more than double to over $8,000/year, and local home values have dropped about 38% since 2020, with many for‑sale signs and owners reporting they are “stuck” because buyers cannot obtain or afford insurance.(insurancenewsnet.com)
• A National Bureau of Economic Research–based study of 74 million policies finds rising insurance premiums are already cutting home price growth by about $40,000 and causing an 11% relative price decline in areas most exposed to disasters, i.e., high‑risk coastal and wildfire zones.(realestatenews.com)
• Florida data show coastal home values softening by roughly 5–10% in 2025 while inland/low‑risk homes are still appreciating, with analysts directly linking the divergence to soaring insurance costs and insurer retreat after recent hurricanes.(naplesed.com)
• Federal and industry reports document insurers withdrawing from or sharply limiting coverage in coastal and wildfire‑prone states like Florida, California, Louisiana, and North Carolina, leaving some communities effectively “uninsurable” and reinforcing downward pressure on prices.(heinrich.senate.gov)

Analysts and policymakers now describe this as a nascent but growing insurance‑driven housing crisis in high‑risk areas—exactly the kind of early, cascading repricing dynamic Friedberg anticipated. The full multi‑year adjustment is still unfolding, but by late 2025 the trend and mechanism he described are clearly visible across multiple coastal regions, so his prediction is broadly borne out.