Jason predicted that Israel would not respond to the 7 October Hamas attacks with a maximal, indiscriminate, “level the place”-style operation in Gaza, but instead with a relatively restrained military campaign. The subsequent course of the war shows the opposite.

Key evidence on the scale and character of Israel’s response:

• Extent of physical destruction: Satellite-based damage assessments show that by late 2024 around two‑thirds of all structures in Gaza (≈69%) had been damaged or destroyed, with UN and World Bank–linked analyses describing tens of billions of dollars in reconstruction needs. (english.alarabiya.net) Later UN/OCHA and IOM data indicate that over 90% of all homes (≈436,000 housing units) have been destroyed or damaged, leaving the vast majority of Gaza’s population in need of emergency shelter. (dci.plo.ps) A UNOSAT/academic time‑series study similarly found damage rates above 50–60% of all buildings by early 2024, confirming pervasive bombardment across the strip. (academic.oup.com)

• Comparisons to extreme historical cases: Analyses drawing on UN satellite data and independent researchers estimate that by 2025 roughly 70–80% of structures in Gaza are damaged, and note that, on a percentage basis, Gaza’s destruction exceeds that of any single German city in World War II and even the US firebombing of Dresden. (prospectmagazine.co.uk) This is precisely the kind of “level the place” outcome Jason was suggesting Israel would avoid.

• Civilian toll and displacement: By early–mid 2025, estimates from UN‑cited figures and major news organizations put Palestinian deaths in Gaza well above 46,000–50,000, the majority women and children, with more than 1.8–1.9 million people (around 90% of the population) displaced and living amid rubble or in tent camps. (apnews.com) These outcomes have drawn sustained accusations from UN bodies, human rights groups, and international courts that Israel’s campaign amounts to collective punishment or a scorched‑earth operation; even some reporting on military doctrine explicitly describes Israel’s strategy in Gaza as a form of scorched earth, with vast destruction of homes, schools, hospitals, and farmland. (en.wikipedia.org)

Given this combination of extraordinary levels of physical devastation, very high civilian casualties, near‑total displacement, and descriptions by experts as comparable to or worse (in percentage terms) than the most devastated WWII cities, Israel’s response is best characterized as at or near the maximal end of conventional military options against Gaza’s urban areas. That is the opposite of the “not going to go that hard” scenario Jason forecast.

Because the real-world response closely matches what most people would colloquially describe as a “level the place” campaign, his prediction that Israel would not respond in this extreme manner must be judged wrong.