Chamath’s statement is explicitly conditional: “If it stops the CR process, it’ll be effective to the tune of about $500 billion.” He is not predicting that Congress will end omnibus/continuing‐resolution (CR) budgeting; he is asserting what the fiscal effect would be if that structural change occurred.

Since the podcast (Oct 2023), Congress has not ended the use of CRs or omnibus‑style catch‑all measures:

• For FY 2024, the government operated for months on a series of CRs before Congress finally finished funding via two large appropriations packages in March 2024.(en.wikipedia.org)
• For FY 2025, Congress went even further and pursued a full‑year continuing resolution (the Full-Year Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2025), extending prior funding levels with only modest adjustments.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Policy analysis and reporting in 2025 describe Washington as increasingly reliant on CRs—sometimes for an entire fiscal year—and warn that Congress may lean exclusively on CRs and omnibus/rescission packages rather than completing all 12 regular appropriations bills.(washingtonpost.com)
• Appropriations‑committee leaders repeatedly talk about working to return to regular order but simultaneously push new short‑term CRs such as the Continuing Appropriations and Extensions Act, 2026, indicating the CR process has clearly not been “stopped.”(appropriations.house.gov)

Because the antecedent of his conditional ("stops the CR process" and a true return to regular‑order appropriations) has not occurred, the world he is describing has never been observed. Available scored budget changes tied to actual legislation (for example, the full‑year CR for FY 2025 or the later “One Big Beautiful Bill” package) are in the tens of billions of dollars either way, and are driven by many policy changes beyond the procedural shift he is hypothesizing; none provide a clean empirical test of “ending CRs/omnibuses saves about $500 billion.”(crfb.org)

Given that:

• The key condition (ending the CR/omnibus process) has not been met; and
• There is no direct empirical or official scoring of the specific counterfactual he posits (regular‑order appropriations vs. CR/omnibus status quo) showing a ≈$500B effect,

we cannot say whether his conditional $500B figure is right or wrong. The claim’s truth value is therefore not determinable from real‑world outcomes, so the appropriate classification is “ambiguous.”