As of November 30, 2025, the prediction is partly borne out so far, but the core "10+ years" timeline for the U.S. Northeast cannot yet be fully evaluated.

1. "It’s now" in Phoenix / California / Austin

• Waymo has operated a fully driverless, paid robotaxi service in metro Phoenix since 2020, and by 2023 had expanded it into what was then the largest contiguous paid robotaxi area in the world, including multiple suburbs and 24/7 airport service at Phoenix Sky Harbor. (waymo.com)
• By 2024–25, Waymo had opened citywide or large-area commercial robotaxi services in San Francisco, Los Angeles, and Austin, with anyone able to download the app and hail fully autonomous rides in those sunny, largely grid-based metros. (cnbc.com)
• Industry overviews in 2025 note that driverless robotaxis are a regular reality in cities like Phoenix, Austin, Los Angeles, and San Francisco, confirming that such deployments are indeed “viable now” in these climates and urban layouts. (axios.com)
  → This strongly supports Jason’s claim that high‑reliability robotaxi deployments are viable in dry, relatively simpler cities in the early–mid 2020s.

2. "10+ years out" for Boston / U.S. Northeast

• In Boston and the broader Northeast, there is still no fully driverless commercial robotaxi service. Waymo’s presence in Boston in 2025 is limited to short-term manual testing with human drivers, explicitly not operating in autonomous mode and not open to the public, and the city states this “does not represent the start of permanent operations.” (cambridgema.gov)
• Waymo’s own site lists Boston, New York, Minneapolis, etc. under “Driving experience in” / testing, while its commercial “Serving riders in” list includes only Phoenix, San Francisco Bay Area, Los Angeles, Austin, and Atlanta. (waymo.com)
• Boston officials and local reporting highlight steep political and technical resistance, citing non‑grid, narrow streets and harsh winter conditions, and note that Waymo has not yet validated fully driverless operation in snow and standing snow. (boston.com)
  → So far, reality is consistent with Jason’s view that the Northeast will be “last” and faces extra difficulty, but we are still years away from 2033, so we can’t yet confirm or falsify the specific “10+ years” horizon.

Conclusion

• The near‑term part of the prediction (robotaxis are already viable in Phoenix / parts of California / Austin) has clearly been vindicated by events since 2020.
• The long‑term part (high‑reliability deployments in Boston‑like, snowy, non‑grid cities are more than 10 years away from 2023) cannot be decisively judged before ~2033; we only know that such deployments have not happened yet and that substantial obstacles remain.

Because the prediction, as phrased, includes that long no‑earlier‑than‑2033 claim, its overall truth value is still too early to call, hence the rating "inconclusive" even though current evidence leans in the direction Jason described.