The prediction said the 2024 presidential election would be determined primarily by (1) moderates and (2) women angry about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, with those blocs playing a significant role.

What actually happened:

• Donald Trump defeated Kamala Harris, 312–226 in the Electoral College and 49.8%–48.3% in the popular vote. (en.wikipedia.org)
• In the national exit poll, moderates were the single largest ideological group (42% of voters) and broke 58–40 for Harris, while conservatives (35% of voters) broke 90–9 for Trump. Overall, the vote was 50–48 for Trump in that same exit poll. (en.wikipedia.org) This means moderates favored Harris but did not decide the outcome in her favor; Trump’s overwhelming conservative and Republican support, plus their geographic distribution, were more decisive than the moderate vote.
• Independents/"independent" voters also made up a record share of the electorate (34%) and leaned slightly toward Harris (about 50–45 nationally), yet Trump still won, again indicating that swing and moderate-leaning blocs were not the primary determinant of the final result. (reuters.com)

Women and abortion / Roe v. Wade:

• Women were 53% of the electorate and backed Harris 53–45 nationally, while men backed Trump 55–43. (en.wikipedia.org) So women (including many motivated by abortion rights) clearly mattered to Harris’s coalition, but their margin was not large enough to decide the race overall.
• AP VoteCast/KFF analyses find that abortion was a very salient issue for many women: about three in ten women voters said abortion policy was the single most important factor in their vote, and majorities of several groups of women (especially Black and Hispanic women and women 18–44) said abortion policy had a "major impact" on their turnout and candidate choice. (kff.org) These voters heavily favored Harris.
• However, for the electorate as a whole abortion was not the top driver. National exit polls show only about 14% of voters named abortion as their top issue, compared with roughly one‑third citing the future of democracy and about one‑third citing the economy. (abc7chicago.com)
• Post‑election analyses note that while abortion remained central to Democratic messaging and clearly energized many women, economic worries and democracy concerns were higher‑ranking motivations for most voters; Trump even carried several states that voted simultaneously to expand or protect abortion access, with a noticeable share of pro‑abortion‑rights voters backing Trump for president. (kff.org) This undercuts the idea that women upset about Roe were the primary determinant of the presidential outcome.

Bottom line:

• The "significant role" part of the claim is supportable: moderates were the largest ideological group and women—especially those motivated by abortion rights—were central to Harris’s support.
• But the stronger assertion that the 2024 election would be decided primarily by moderates and by Roe‑motivated women is not borne out by the data. Moderates and those women mostly favored Harris, yet Trump won, and national evidence points to partisan/ideological polarization plus concerns about democracy and the economy as more decisive than those specific blocs.

Because the core emphasis was on these two groups primarily determining the outcome, the prediction is best judged as wrong, even though those groups were indeed important parts of the story.