Jason’s normalized prediction was that at least one of Joe Biden or Donald Trump would not be an active, official major‑party nominee at the effective “starting line” of the 2024 general election.

In reality, Joe Biden initially ran for re‑election and became the presumptive Democratic nominee, but he withdrew from the race on July 21, 2024 and endorsed Kamala Harris, who was then officially confirmed as the Democratic presidential nominee on August 5, 2024. (en.wikipedia.org) Donald Trump, by contrast, was formally nominated as the Republican candidate and faced Harris in the November 5, 2024 general election. (en.wikipedia.org)

Thus, when the general‑election campaign began with the official nominees (Trump vs. Harris), Biden was not an active nominee, satisfying the normalized claim that at least one of Biden or Trump would not make it to the “starting line.” However, his more literal statement that neither Biden nor Trump would make it (i.e., that both would fail to be nominees) did not come true, since Trump did. On the normalized formulation specified here, the prediction is assessed as right.