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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Chamath @ 00:38:09Wrong
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Arm’s intrinsic public‑market equity value, once it trades in a normal post‑IPO environment (e.g., after initial lockups and hype have cleared), will settle around $15–20 billion, substantially below the $60–70 billion valuation SoftBank is targeting for the IPO.
Trying to stretch to a 60 or 70 billion dollar print, I think is really tough. This is a honestly a 15 to 20 billion dollar company.View on YouTube
Explanation

Arm IPO’d on Sept 14, 2023 at $51/share, implying a valuation of about $54.5 billion, and its first day of trading lifted the market value to roughly $65–68 billion, in line with SoftBank’s $60–70 billion target range. (investing.com)

Since then, Arm’s market cap has never approached Chamath’s predicted $15–20 billion “intrinsic” level. Market‑cap history shows it started around $65.25B at IPO, ended 2023 at ~$77B, 2024 at ~$130B, and as of November 2025 is around $140–150B. (stockanalysis.com) Current live data sources likewise put Arm’s market cap in the ~$140B range. (coinmarketcap.com)

The IPO lockup expired on March 12, 2024, a reasonable marker for the start of a more “normal” post‑IPO environment. Around that time, Arm was trading near $128–130/share, corresponding to a valuation well above $120B, and contemporaneous commentary repeatedly described the stock as richly or excessively valued, not beaten down. (investing.com)

Because Arm’s public‑market value has stayed many times higher than $15–20 billion for more than a year after lockups and initial hype, the prediction that it would settle in that range is clearly incorrect.