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Last updated Nov 29, 2025
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Sacks @ 00:19:19Right
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Nvidia’s AI‑GPU demand growth rates seen in 2023 will slow substantially going forward, but the long‑run steady‑state demand level for such chips will be at least as high as the 2023 level rather than falling below it.
I think we can say that it can't continue at these growth rates, but probably there will be some steady state of demand that's you know, it probably is at least where we are today.View on YouTube
Explanation

Two distinct parts of Sacks’s prediction can be checked against what actually happened:

  1. “It can't continue at these growth rates” (growth will slow substantially):

    • In fiscal 2023, NVIDIA’s Data Center revenue (a good proxy for AI‑GPU demand) was $15.0B, up 41% year‑on‑year.(sec.gov)
    • Through mid/late 2023 (fiscal 2024), quarterly YoY growth in Data Center revenue surged into the hundreds of percent: Q2 FY2024 was +171% YoY and Q3 FY2024 was +279% YoY.(nvidianews.nvidia.com)
    • At the full‑year level, FY2024 Data Center revenue jumped to $47.5B, +217% YoY.(sec.gov)
    • In FY2025, Data Center revenue rose further to $115.2B, +142% YoY—still huge, but clearly down from +217% the prior year.(scribd.com)
    • By 2025, quarterly YoY growth had moderated further: Q4 FY2025 Data Center revenue was +93% YoY, Q1 FY2026 +73% YoY, and Q3 FY2026 +66% YoY.(meanewsnet.com)
      These figures show a substantial deceleration from the 200–400%+ growth rates around 2023–early 2024. So the claim that 2023‑era growth rates couldn’t continue, and would slow substantially, has clearly been borne out.

  2. “There will be some steady state of demand that's at least where we are today” (no bust below 2023 levels):

    • The 2023 baseline Sacks was referring to corresponds to roughly $15B in annual Data Center revenue in FY2023.(sec.gov)
    • Since then, the absolute level of AI‑GPU demand has exploded upward, not down: Data Center revenue climbed to $47.5B in FY2024 and $115.2B in FY2025, nearly 8× the 2023 level.(sec.gov)
    • Recent quarters in 2025 show record data‑center sales—$35.6B in Q4 FY2025, $39.1B in Q1 FY2026, and $51.2B in Q3 FY2026—with NVIDIA describing Blackwell‑based cloud GPUs as “sold out” and demand “keeps accelerating.”(nvidianews.nvidia.com)
    • Amazon and NVIDIA executives also reported in 2024 that they saw no pullback in AI data‑center build‑out plans and expected power and compute demand for AI to keep rising.(cnbc.com)
      More than two years after the podcast, demand has not reverted anywhere near 2023 levels, much less fallen below them; instead, the market has moved to a far higher sustained run‑rate.

Because (a) the once‑extraordinary growth rates of 2023/early‑2024 have indeed slowed markedly, and (b) the ongoing demand level for NVIDIA’s AI GPUs is well above, not below, the 2023 baseline with no evidence yet of a collapse, the prediction is best classified as right on the information available up to November 30, 2025. While the ultimate long‑run “steady state” is still in the future, all observable data so far lines up with Sacks’s forecast trajectory rather than with a boom‑and‑bust scenario.