And then the bet is that there's some chance, not 100%, but some chance that Trump doesn't make it all the way. He ends up in jail, or people start to turn on him, and then he's the frontrunner because he's basically captivated that audience with the same message.View on YouTube
The prediction is explicitly conditional: if Donald Trump "doesn't make it all the way" (e.g., is jailed or loses his support), then Vivek Ramaswamy becomes the frontrunner by capturing Trump’s base.
In reality, the antecedent never occurred:
- Donald Trump remained in the 2024 Republican race, dominated the primaries, and clinched the GOP nomination on March 12, 2024. (forbes.com)
- Vivek Ramaswamy suspended his presidential campaign on January 15, 2024, after a poor showing in the Iowa caucuses and then endorsed Trump instead of surpassing him. (cbsnews.com)
Because Trump was never forced out of the race and never lost his frontrunner status, the scenario under which Ramaswamy was predicted to become frontrunner never materialized. That means we cannot evaluate whether, had Trump been knocked out, Ramaswamy would in fact have inherited his base and become frontrunner.
Enough time has passed to know how the 2024 GOP primary actually unfolded, but the key condition for the prediction was never met. So the correctness of the conditional claim cannot be determined from real-world outcomes, and the fairest classification is "ambiguous" rather than right or wrong.