Friedberg’s prediction was that as AI tools for scripting, directing, and rendering are adopted, eventually we could see “100 times more films” being made at about “1/100 the cost” of today’s studio films. In the episode he frames this as a forward-looking structural change (“we could see…”) rather than attaching any specific time horizon like “within a few years.” (podscripts.co)

As of late 2025, neither part of that quantitative claim has actually materialized:

• Volume of films: Global feature-film output remains in the thousands per year, not hundreds of thousands. For example, in 2022 India produced 1,691 feature films and the U.S. 1,361; 2024 data and box-office reporting show a film landscape of similar order of magnitude, with some markets (e.g., China) releasing fewer features in 2024 than in 2023 (612 vs. 792). This is nowhere near a 100× jump in the number of films. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Costs: Big studio projects still routinely have production budgets in the tens to hundreds of millions of dollars, with many recent tentpoles in the $130–300M range, and industry analyses still put the average major-studio film around ~$65M—far from a 100× reduction. (axios.com)

At the same time, AI tooling is clearly spreading into film and video workflows:

• Text-to-video and generative video models (Runway Gen-2/3, Sora, Pika, Lumiere, Dream Machine, etc.) have become commercially available and are increasingly used for pre‑visualization, concepting, VFX prototypes, and marketing content. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Major tools are being integrated into pro software (e.g., Adobe Premiere Pro adding Sora/Runway/Pika plug‑ins) and studios are signing direct deals (e.g., Lionsgate–Runway), while Netflix and AI-focused studios like Wonder report using generative AI to cut specific VFX or production costs by multiples, particularly for limited sequences or short-form content. (venturebeat.com)

So the directional thesis—that AI will increase leverage and lower some production costs—is being borne out in early ways, but the specific magnitude (100× more films at 1/100 cost) is very far from current reality.

However, because Friedberg did not specify a time frame, this was effectively a long‑run scenario rather than a claim about what would be true by 2025. Only a bit more than two years have passed since the prediction, and AI video capabilities are still evolving rapidly. Given that:

• The literal numbers he gave are not yet realized, but
• He did not say by when they should be realized,

there isn’t enough basis to call the prediction definitively “right” or “wrong” at this point. It remains a speculative long‑term forecast whose truth value can’t yet be determined.

Therefore the appropriate rating is “inconclusive (too early to tell).”