As of late 2025, there isn’t clear evidence that the 2023 Hollywood writers’ and actors’ strikes have backfired in the way Chamath predicted.

1. What the unions actually achieved on AI
Both the Writers Guild of America (WGA) and SAG‑AFTRA made AI a core bargaining issue and secured explicit contractual guardrails:

• The 2023 WGA contract states that AI cannot write or rewrite literary material, AI‑generated text cannot be treated as “source material,” and companies cannot require writers to use AI tools; AI use must be disclosed and remains under union control on covered projects. (en.wikipedia.org)
• The 2023 SAG‑AFTRA TV/Theatrical deal requires clear consent and compensation for digital replicas, including pay tied to the days an actor would have worked and residuals for certain AI uses. These protections apply even when digital doubles or background replicas are used. (thewrap.com)
  These outcomes strengthened formal bargaining power on AI in union‑covered film/TV work, which is the opposite of an immediate erosion.

2. AI use has grown, but mostly as augmentation, not wholesale replacement
Since the strikes, Hollywood has seen a surge of interest in generative AI across VFX, editing, pre‑visualization and experimentation with synthetic performers, and industry coverage routinely describes an "AI freak‑out" and deep anxiety about the technology. (vanityfair.com) Netflix, for example, has used generative AI to accelerate special effects on shows, emphasizing speed and cost savings but framing it as enhancing human crews rather than replacing them. (theguardian.com) New ventures like Staircase Studios explicitly market AI as a way to lower budgets while still employing union talent at standard rates. (nypost.com)

3. Early attempts at synthetic actors have met union pushback
Projects like the AI‑generated “actor” Tilly Norwood have triggered strong condemnation from SAG‑AFTRA, which argues such uses may violate the 2023 contract and threaten livelihoods. (washingtonpost.com) The fact that unions can credibly threaten contractual and legal consequences suggests they retain substantial leverage, at least within the studio system that signed those agreements.

4. Ongoing organizing has extended, not reduced, AI protections
SAG‑AFTRA’s 2024–2025 video game strike—explicitly focused in part on AI—ended with new consent and disclosure rules around digital replicas and guarantees against certain forms of AI substitution for performers in games. (en.wikipedia.org) That’s further evidence that, post‑2023, unions are using their bargaining power to shape how AI is deployed rather than being structurally sidelined by it.

5. Why the prediction is still hard to judge
Chamath’s normalized claim is about long‑term dynamics: that the strike will accelerate AI adoption to the point of reducing or eliminating the need for human writers and actors, thereby undermining their bargaining power and job security. In the short run (2023–2025):

• Union contracts in core Hollywood film/TV have added AI constraints and economic gains, not visible erosion of formal power.
• AI adoption is clearly accelerating across media, but so far it is primarily augmenting workflows, marketing, and niche or experimental projects, with union‑covered writers and actors still central to mainstream production.
• Any eventual structural displacement of human talent by AI will likely play out over a much longer horizon than two years, and it’s not yet clear how much of that will be caused by the 2023 strikes versus broader technological and economic trends.

Because of this mix—stronger contract protections now, rising but mostly complementary AI use, and the inherently long‑term nature of the prediction about “disintermediation” and job security—the available evidence does not yet let us say the prediction is clearly right or clearly wrong.

So the fairest assessment as of November 30, 2025 is: it’s too early to tell whether the strikes will ultimately weaken or strengthen writers’ and actors’ long‑term bargaining power in the face of AI.