Both key elements of the normalized prediction match subsequent outcomes:

1. No U.S. recession from mid‑2023 through end‑2024 (soft‑landing outcome).

   • The NBER Business Cycle Dating Committee’s chronology still lists the most recent peak as February 2020 and the most recent trough as April 2020, with no additional peaks or troughs dated through at least late 2024. That implies no officially recognized recession occurred in 2023 or 2024.​​​​(nber.org)
   • A commonly used NBER-based recession indicator (YCharts series tracking NBER peak‑through‑trough periods) shows a value of 0.00 (i.e., not in recession) for every quarter from Q2 2023 through Q4 2024.​(ycharts.com)
   • By late 2024, multiple mainstream assessments described the U.S. as having effectively achieved or being on the cusp of a soft landing: inflation had fallen substantially from its 2022 highs while GDP continued to grow and unemployment remained relatively low. (en.wikipedia.org)
     Together, these indicate that, under the standard NBER definition, the U.S. avoided entering a recession over the period in question, consistent with the prediction of a soft landing.

2. Federal Reserve began cutting interest rates in 2024.

   • The FOMC’s rate‑history record shows that on 18 September 2024 the Fed lowered the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.75–5.00%, with the prior setting having been higher. This is recorded as the first cut of that easing cycle.​(en.wikipedia.org)
   • The Fed then cut again at its 7 November 2024 and 18 December 2024 meetings, with reporting on the December move noting it was the third rate cut of 2024 and reduced the key rate to around 4.3%.​(en.wikipedia.org)
     This directly satisfies the prediction that the Fed would start cutting rates sometime in 2024.

Since (a) no NBER‑defined recession was recorded between mid‑2023 and the end of 2024 and (b) the Fed indeed began cutting rates in 2024, Sacks’s combined prediction is substantively correct.