ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E133: Market melt-up, IPO update, AI startups overheat, Reddit revolts & more with Brad Gerstner
Back
Jason @ 00:48:25Wrong
aimarkets
Within roughly six months from June 2023, Google will deploy AI capabilities that surpass ChatGPT‑4 in practice, and once integrated into its search/ad products this will increase advertisers' cost per click (CPC) due to improved targeting and user understanding.
I think Google's not as far behind closed AI as we think... I think Google's going to be ChatGPT four. I'm saying it right here, right now. I think they're going to beat them, because I think that they're better at indexing all this information and understanding it than anybody on the planet, and they have the largest ad network. If they get this done in the next six months, I think it's going to increase the cost per click because they're going to know so much about each user.View on YouTube
Explanation

The prediction had two linked parts, both within roughly six months of mid‑June 2023 (so by about mid‑December 2023):

  1. Google would deploy AI capabilities that in practice surpass ChatGPT‑4.
    • Through late 2023, Bard was powered mainly by PaLM 2. Independent evaluations in 2023 consistently found GPT‑4 ahead of Bard/PaLM 2. For example, GPT‑4 significantly outperformed Google Bard on the Japanese radiology board exam and on the 2023 Japanese national dentist exam.(link.springer.com)
    • A technical and journalistic comparison from 2023 likewise judged ChatGPT‑4 superior overall to Bard, despite Bard being faster and free.(arstechnica.com)
    • Google’s next‑gen Gemini models were unveiled in December 2023. Google/DeepMind claimed Gemini Ultra outperformed GPT‑4 on several benchmarks, but Ultra was not actually available to users until “early 2024”; in December 2023 only Gemini Pro was accessible via Bard and APIs.(time.com)
    Because Gemini Ultra (the model claimed to beat GPT‑4) was not deployed to end users within the six‑month window, and available Google models during that window were generally rated behind GPT‑4 in independent tests, this part of the prediction did not come true on the stated timeline.

  2. Once integrated into Google’s search/ad products, this would increase advertisers’ cost per click (CPC) due to improved targeting and user understanding.
    • Google’s generative‑AI search (Search Generative Experience, SGE) began rolling out in limited “Search Labs” preview in mid‑2023 and then expanded to more users and countries later in 2023, but this was still clearly labeled experimental.(blog.google)
    • Large‑scale AI Overviews with ads and later the more AI‑centric AI Mode in Search were rolled out more fully only in 2024–2025, with reports in 2025 that AI‑powered search with ads was boosting usage and monetization.(reuters.com)
    • Alphabet’s own monetization metrics show that during 2023, cost‑per‑click did not experience the kind of clear AI‑driven jump the prediction describes. YCharts’ compiled data on Alphabet’s CPC change indicates year‑over‑year CPC was –7% in Q1 2023, –3% in Q2 2023, +4% in Q3 2023, and 0% in Q4 2023.(ycharts.com) At best, there was a mild uptick by Q3, but not a sustained or clearly AI‑caused CPC increase tied to generative‑AI search and ad integration within that six‑month window.

Because (a) Google did not have a widely deployed model that clearly surpassed GPT‑4 in practice within ~six months of June 2023, and (b) there is no evidence that AI integration into search/ads during that period drove a notable CPC increase of the type described, the combined prediction is best classified as wrong on its own terms and timeline.