Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Chamath @ 00:20:43Inconclusive
economymarkets
For the remainder of the 2020s (through about 2030), both interest rates and inflation will remain "sticky" at relatively elevated levels, rather than returning quickly to the near‑zero‑rate, very‑low‑inflation environment of the 2010s.
And so you just have to get prepared for rates just being sticky and inflation being sticky. And I think that that's probably the most reasonable base case for the rest of the decade.View on YouTube
Explanation

It’s too early to definitively judge a prediction that explicitly covers “the rest of the decade” (i.e., roughly 2023–2030) when we are only in late 2025.

What the prediction said
Chamath predicted that for the rest of the decade:

  • Interest rates would be “sticky” at higher levels, not quickly reverting to the near‑zero regime of the 2010s.
  • Inflation would also be “sticky” (i.e., persistently elevated rather than snapping back to ~2% and staying there easily).

Where we are by late 2025 (high level, based on current macro data):

  • Policy rates (e.g., the U.S. federal funds rate) remain well above the near‑zero levels of the 2010s, even after peaks in 2023–24 and some subsequent adjustments. They have not returned to 0–1% territory.
  • Inflation, after spiking in 2021–22, has come down from its highs but has shown episodes of persistence and has not clearly locked into a stable, low‑and‑forgotten 2010s-style regime. Central banks continue to emphasize vigilance and data dependence.

This partially aligns with the early phase of his prediction (rates and inflation have indeed been higher and more persistent than in the 2010s through 2025), but:

  • The prediction’s timeframe explicitly runs through the end of the decade.
  • Future paths for rates and inflation (2026–2030) remain uncertain and could still either validate or contradict his “sticky for the rest of the decade” view.

Because the core claim is about a multi‑year regime extending well beyond 2025, and we haven’t observed the full period yet, the fairest classification is “inconclusive (too early)” rather than right or wrong at this point.