Economic data show that the core outcome Chamath predicted did occur: the United States and the global economy did not experience a hard‑landing recession in Q4 2023.

In macroeconomics, a hard landing typically refers to a rapid shift from growth into a sharp slowdown or recession, usually following monetary tightening; it is contrasted with a soft landing, where inflation is reduced without triggering a recession.(quickonomics.com)

For the U.S.:

• Real GDP grew at a 3.3% annualized rate in Q4 2023, with full‑year 2023 growth at about 2.5%, and commentators noted that the economy had clearly skirted the widely expected recession.(cnbc.com)
• The NBER’s business‑cycle chronology and the associated FRED recession indicator show no U.S. recession after the brief COVID downturn ending in April 2020; the indicator is zero (expansion) through and beyond Q4 2023.(nber.org)
  These facts are inconsistent with any reasonable definition of a hard‑landing recession in late 2023.

For the global economy:

• The IMF estimates global growth at about 3.2% in 2023, and describes global activity as surprisingly resilient, with inflation falling and no global recession, framing the outlook in soft‑landing terms rather than collapse.(mediacenter.imf.org)
  Again, this is far from a global hard‑landing recession in Q4 2023.

Where Chamath’s reasoning is weaker is the causal story: China did roll out and discuss various stimulus and support measures, but many analysts throughout 2023–24 emphasized that there was no single massive ‘bazooka’ package, and that policy easing was relatively limited and piecemeal compared with past multi‑trillion‑yuan waves.(thinkchina.sg) The avoidance of a hard landing in the U.S. and globally is more commonly attributed to domestic factors (like U.S. fiscal support, resilient consumption, and central‑bank policy) than to Chinese stimulus alone.

Nonetheless, the prediction as normalized — that there would not be a hard‑landing recession in Q4 2023 — was borne out by the data, so it is best classified as right, even though the cited mechanism (China ‘printing trillions’ making a hard landing impossible) is debatable.