Last updated Nov 29, 2025
economymarkets
From mid‑2023 forward, interest rates will remain elevated (above the level investors "want") and stay high for an extended period rather than being cut soon, and the market bottoming process is nearly complete by mid‑2023.
What have I said. Like a broken record. Rates are going to be higher than you want and they're going to be around for longer than you like. And now Powell is basically telling you the same thing. So. We're almost at the end of I think the bottoming though I don't agree with Druckenmiller I think he's wrong.View on YouTube
Explanation

Chamath was essentially right on both components of this prediction.

1. "Rates will be higher than you want and around for longer than you like"
• At the time of the episode (June 16, 2023), the Fed funds target range was 5.00–5.25%.
• The Fed raised again in July 2023 to 5.25–5.50%, the highest in more than 22 years, and then held that peak from July 26, 2023 through July 31, 2024. (ycharts.com)
• Only starting in September 2024 did the Fed begin cutting, ultimately reducing the range by 100 bps over the final three meetings of 2024 to 4.25–4.50%, and then further to a 3.75–4.00% range by October 29, 2025. (federalreserve.gov)
• In late 2023 and early 2024, futures markets and many economists were expecting earlier and steeper cuts (often starting mid‑2024 and taking rates much closer to 3%), expectations that proved too optimistic. (spglobal.com)

Net effect: policy stayed at or near a restrictive 5.25–5.50% for about a year after his comment and remains well above pre‑2022 levels even by late 2025, clearly fitting "higher than you want" and "longer than you like" relative to prevailing market hopes.

2. "We're almost at the end of ... the bottoming"
• The S&P 500’s bear‑market low is broadly dated to October 12, 2022, around 3,577, after a ~25% drop from its January 2022 high. (seekingalpha.com)
• By June 8–9, 2023—just days before the podcast—the S&P 500 had risen more than 20% above that October low, and major outlets and market commentators marked this as the start or confirmation of a new bull market. (upi.com)
• After mid‑2023, the index went on to reach new all‑time highs (e.g., January 19, 2024) and, while it experienced later corrections (like a 10% pullback into March 2025), none of these moves revisited or undercut the October 2022 lows—they were drawdowns within an ongoing bull market. (fool.com)

So, when Chamath said in mid‑June 2023 that the bottoming process was nearly done, the major U.S. equity market had in fact already put in its cyclical low eight months earlier and was transitioning into a sustained bull run. No subsequent lower low has contradicted that view.

Taken together, the interest‑rate path and market behavior since mid‑2023 align strongly with his call that (a) rates would stay uncomfortably high for an extended period and (b) the bottoming in equities was essentially complete by then. Hence the prediction is best judged as right.