Evidence from multiple analytics sources shows that Tucker Carlson’s Twitter/X show did reach audiences on the order of ~25 million per episode for major releases, matching Jason’s prediction.

Key points:

• Carlson launched “Tucker on Twitter” on June 6, 2023. The first episode’s tweet amassed around 85–120 million tweet views (impressions) within days, indicating extremely wide distribution, even if many of those are just timeline impressions rather than full video views. (newsweek.com)
• More conservative video-view metrics (which require at least ~2 seconds watched) from third‑party analytics (Tubular Labs) and reporters put the first episode around 26–27 million video views, with subsequent early episodes still in the tens of millions before declining. (aol.com)
• Even critics emphasizing that his show later hemorrhaged viewers still cite these initial mid‑tens‑of‑millions video views for the launch episodes, confirming that major releases did, in fact, hit that scale. (independent.co.uk)

Given that Jason’s normalized prediction was that Carlson’s Twitter‑based show would reach an audience on the order of 25 million people per episode or per major release, and early flagship episodes achieved ~25M+ video views and far higher tweet impressions, the prediction is best judged as right (even though that level was not sustained over time).