Jason’s prediction was that, in the months after June 2023, the U.S. government would effectively stop U.S. venture capital from making new investments in Chinese companies, especially in sensitive sectors, and that it would “stop all US venture investing in China.”

What actually happened:

1. Outbound-investment controls were introduced, but only narrowly and not immediately effective.

   • On August 9, 2023, President Biden issued Executive Order 14105 creating an outbound investment program targeting certain Chinese technologies (semiconductors and microelectronics, quantum information technologies, and some AI systems). The order authorizes prohibitions on some investments and notification requirements for others, rather than a blanket ban on all venture investing. (theguardian.com)
   • Treasury’s final regulations for this program were issued October 28, 2024, with an effective date of January 2, 2025—over a year after the prediction window of “coming months” following June 2023. (home.treasury.gov)
   • Congressional and Treasury summaries explicitly describe the program as targeted and narrowly scoped to specific national-security technologies, not as a comprehensive halt to all U.S. investment in China. (congress.gov)

2. U.S. venture investment in China dropped sharply but did not stop.

   • S&P Global data show that U.S.-backed funding rounds in mainland China fell to $3.93 billion across 116 deals in 2023—down more than 50% from 2022, but clearly not zero. (spglobal.com)
   • In the first half of 2024, U.S. private equity and venture capital still invested about $650 million across 45 deals in China, with technology, media and telecom companies remaining the top destination for U.S. private capital in Q2 2024. (spglobal.com)
   • Reporting on the new outbound rules notes that many U.S.-linked investors are restructuring, slowing, or freezing some new China tech investments and racing to comply with the targeted bans on military-related AI/quantum/semiconductor deals—but not that all venture investing has ceased. (ft.com)

3. Net effect vs. the prediction.

   • The government did impose significant outbound-investment controls focused on certain sensitive technologies in China, and these have had a chilling effect on U.S. venture activity.
   • However, they are sector-specific, threshold-based, and partly notification-only, and they came into full legal effect in January 2025, not within just “the coming months” after June 2023.
   • U.S. venture capital activity in China has declined sharply but demonstrably has not been fully or effectively stopped, even in tech sectors broadly defined.

Because the prediction called for the U.S. government to stop all (or effectively all) U.S. venture investing in China within the months after June 2023, and the reality is a delayed, narrow, and partial restriction regime under which investment—though much reduced—continues, the prediction is best classified as wrong.