The prediction is explicitly multi‑decade: Chamath says China is “largely uninvestable for the next 30 or 40 years,” which from a June 2023 starting point implies a time horizon stretching roughly into the 2050s–2060s. As of November 30, 2025, only about two and a half years of that 30–40 year window have elapsed, so the core claim—that over that entire span China will deliver materially worse long‑term, risk‑adjusted equity returns than major alternative markets—cannot yet be evaluated.

Early performance differences or current investor sentiment toward China (positive or negative) are not sufficient to confirm or refute a structural, multi‑decade return forecast. We would need many more years of realized relative returns and policy outcomes before judging whether China has in fact been a persistently inferior, “largely uninvestable” destination for long‑term growth equity capital over the stated period.

Because the specified timeframe overwhelmingly lies in the future, it is too early to determine whether this prediction is right or wrong.