Chamath argued in June 2023 that there was not enough political support to "visit this issue" and that he was "pretty skeptical that you're going to see any form of legislation pass" on a clear federal crypto framework.

Since then, Congress has in fact passed significant federal crypto legislation. In 2025, the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for U.S. Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act was passed by both chambers (Senate on June 17, 2025; House on July 17, 2025) and signed into law by President Trump on July 18, 2025. (en.wikipedia.org) The law is explicitly framed as a federal regulatory regime for payment stablecoins—establishing licensing, reserve, disclosure and supervisory requirements—and is widely described by legal and policy analysts as the first major federal law focused on cryptocurrency regulation and a clear framework for stablecoins. (mondaq.com) Government and industry commentary similarly treat it as a landmark crypto regulatory framework rather than a marginal or symbolic bill. (ffnews.com)

While a broader market‑structure bill (the Financial Innovation and Technology for the 21st Century Act, FIT21) only passed the House and never became law, (en.wikipedia.org) the GENIUS Act itself is clearly significant, sector‑defining crypto legislation passed by Congress within roughly two years of his prediction. That contradicts his expressed skepticism that there was enough political support for any such legislation to pass.

Because a major federal crypto framework law did pass in this timeframe, the prediction that no such legislation would pass is best classified as wrong, even allowing for some ambiguity around the phrase "near term."