As of late 2025, there are clear signs that AI is tightening white‑collar and entry‑level hiring, but the specific scenario Jason described – large swaths of workers being unable to get interviews for anything except in‑person service jobs – is not yet clearly established.

Evidence that points toward his concern:

• Several analyses find a steep drop in entry‑level and junior white‑collar opportunities since the spread of generative AI. Revelio Labs estimates U.S. entry‑level postings are down ~35% since January 2023, with AI identified as a major factor.(cnbc.com) The “jobpocalypse” coverage similarly reports entry‑level offers in the U.S. and U.K. falling by about one‑third and notes that many employers say AI lets them cut staff.(en.wikipedia.org)
• A summary of American Staffing Association data states that roughly 40% of white‑collar job seekers in 2024 failed to secure any interview, indicating serious bottlenecks for many aspiring knowledge workers.(medium.com)
• Multiple studies and forecasts (IMF, WEF, etc.) highlight that AI’s largest exposure is in high‑skill, white‑collar occupations and that many employers expect to reduce headcount where AI can automate tasks.(institute.global) This supports Jason’s directionally pessimistic view about knowledge‑worker competition.

Evidence against saying his prediction has already come true:

• Overall labor‑market data do not show masses of workers being employable only in service roles. U.S. unemployment in 2025 is elevated but not catastrophic (around the mid‑4% range), with weakness and selectivity in white‑collar hiring but ongoing hiring across many professional sectors.(apnews.com) College‑graduate unemployment has risen (to about 5.8% in 2025) but remains far below levels that would indicate wholesale exclusion from non‑service work.(en.wikipedia.org)
• Studies of AI adoption emphasize that its labor effects are still in early stages. One 2025 synthesis notes that as of 2024 only about 5% of U.S. businesses had implemented AI solutions and that 63% of workers reported little or no AI use at work, suggesting that broad, AI‑driven restructuring is still nascent.(dataconomy.com) Another large analysis of job postings and skills exposure finds extensive task reshuffling but very few skills that are fully automatable today, arguing against immediate mass displacement.(siai.org)
• There is evidence of some young people proactively shifting into trades and manual/blue‑collar work (construction, HVAC, etc.) partly because white‑collar entry paths look worse in an AI era, but this is not the same as being able to get interviews only for service jobs; it reflects both choice and a tougher white‑collar market.(businessinsider.com)

Given that the podcast aired in mid‑2023 and Jason spoke about what would happen “over the coming years,” we are only about two and a half years into that window. AI is clearly contributing to a squeeze on junior and some knowledge‑worker roles, and some data (e.g., high shares of white‑collar job seekers getting no interviews) are directionally consistent with his worry. But we do not yet see solid evidence that a large segment of the workforce can only get interviews for in‑person service work, nor that AI adoption has matured enough to settle the long‑run outcome. For now, the prediction’s truth value remains inconclusive rather than clearly right or wrong.