Available full‑year sales data after the May 2023 episode show that the Tesla Model Y has not yet been the best‑selling vehicle in the United States, but the prediction didn’t include a clear time limit, so it could still become true in a future year.

2023 U.S. sales: Multiple industry summaries using Automotive News/Cox data report that the Ford F‑Series remained America’s best‑selling vehicle in 2023, extending a decades‑long streak. The Tesla Model Y was high on the charts (around 5th place), with estimated U.S. sales in the mid‑380k range, but it did not surpass the F‑Series or other top trucks. (motortrend.com)

2024 U.S. sales: For full‑year 2024, rankings again show the Ford F‑Series as the best‑selling vehicle in America, with roughly 730k–760k units sold, while the Model Y sits several spots lower (typically 4th–6th) with ~370k–410k units. (motor1.com) Other analyses and state‑level breakdowns likewise show the Model Y leading in some states (e.g., California, Nevada, New Jersey, Washington) but not nationally. (visualcapitalist.com) Globally, the Model Y did become the world’s best‑selling car in 2023, but that is a different claim than being #1 in the U.S. market. (kbb.com)

Because Chamath’s statement was open‑ended ("going to be the best selling car in America") and was not explicitly tied to a specific year like 2023 or 2024, it is still possible—though currently unrealized—that a later full year (e.g., 2026 or beyond) could satisfy it. As of late 2025, we can say the prediction has not yet come true, but we cannot definitively say it will never do so. Therefore the fairest status is inconclusive (too early) rather than clearly right or wrong.