where the real value gets accrued is five, six, seven years later when the software and services companies show up and create a huge moat. And those are the Googles and the Facebook's and the apples of the world.View on YouTube
The prediction explicitly concerns where long‑term economic value will accrue 5–7 years after the start of the AI cycle around 2023—i.e., roughly in 2028–2030. As of today (November 30, 2025), we are only about two years into that window. Even though AI hardware companies like Nvidia have captured enormous value so far (e.g., Nvidia’s market cap and revenue explosion driven by AI chips), it is still too early to determine whether, by 2028–2030, the majority of long‑term economic value will instead be captured by software and services built on top of AI. Because the prediction’s evaluation period has not yet arrived, it cannot be judged now.
Therefore, the correct status is: it’s too early to tell whether this prediction will be right or wrong.