nothing will change and you guys will still be crying wolf in five years. It'll still be the same. It'll just be a different debt to GDP number that gives you anxiety.View on YouTube
It is too early to determine whether this prediction is right or wrong.
The prediction is explicitly about the situation five years after the May 2023 discussion ("in five years") and "around 2028". Five years after 2023 is 2028, which has not yet occurred as of November 30, 2025 (2023 + 5 = 2028).
We can observe that, so far, the U.S. still has large federal deficits and a rising debt‑to‑GDP ratio, and no sweeping structural fiscal reform has been passed that clearly locks in a very different long‑term debt path. However, because the prediction concerns the state of affairs by around 2028, and future policy and economic developments between late 2025 and 2028 are unknown, we cannot yet conclusively say that the 2028 endpoint condition has been met or not.
Therefore, the correct status today is inconclusive (too early), even though the trajectory so far appears broadly consistent with the scenario Chamath described.