Available data through late 2025 support both parts of Chamath’s prediction, at least so far.

• Debt-to-GDP has continued to rise rather than fall. CBO figures cited by the Senate Budget Committee put federal debt held by the public at about 97.3% of GDP in 2023 and project it rising to roughly 99–100% of GDP by 2024–2025, not declining. (budget.senate.gov) Other summaries of 2025 data similarly report public debt near 100% of GDP and total (gross) federal debt around 123% of GDP, confirming an upward trajectory from 2023 levels. (crfb.org)
• No systemic break or cessation of the U.S. economy has occurred. CBO’s January 2025 outlook, while warning that debt is on an “unsustainable upward trajectory,” still projects continued real GDP growth around 1.8% annually over the next decade, with unemployment and inflation normalizing—i.e., a functioning, growing economy despite higher debt. (crfb.org) Late‑2025 reporting likewise describes policy debates, a recent government shutdown, and recession worries, but explicitly notes that overall U.S. economic growth remains intact and a broad recession is not expected. (reuters.com)
• Forward-looking projections align with his view. Multiple recent CBO-based analyses show debt held by the public climbing from about 100% of GDP in 2025 to well above 110%–150% of GDP in the coming decades, reinforcing the idea that debt-to-GDP is on a rising, not falling, path while the economy is still assumed to operate. (crfb.org)

Because (1) debt-to-GDP has indeed risen since 2023 rather than being reduced, and (2) this increase has not caused the U.S. economy to "stop" or suffer a systemic breakdown as of November 2025, the prediction is best classified as right (so far), with the obvious caveat that longer-term outcomes beyond 2025 remain unresolved.