Biden did in fact run for reelection in 2024 and did not exit the race before the election, so the event Friedberg was implicitly concerned about (Biden not running) did not occur. However, his explicit prediction was only that there was a non-zero chance this could happen. Since almost any contingent future political event has some non-zero probability, this is trivially true and not practically falsifiable. Because the statement doesn’t specify a concrete probability threshold or a calibration standard we can test against, we can’t rigorously classify it as right or wrong—only that the hypothesized outcome did not materialize. Therefore, the most appropriate label is "ambiguous".