Stanley Druckenmiller gave a speech at USC... and he expressed concern about the financial crisis that occur could occur in the 2025 to 2035 period due to the baby boomers turning 65 and the impact on entitlements. He predicted that in 25 years, spending on seniors will grow to 60% of all taxes... And it's predicting here that those combined will go from what looks like 12% today, up to 24% of GDP.View on YouTube
The prediction has three explicit time horizons:
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Major U.S. financial crisis in the 2025–2035 period
As of the current date (November 30, 2025), we are only ~1 year into the 2025–2035 window. While there have been ongoing concerns about U.S. debt levels and fiscal sustainability, there has not been a clearly recognized, discrete "major U.S. financial crisis" in this period comparable to 2008–2009. However, because the prediction is that such a crisis will occur at some point between 2025 and 2035, the window has barely begun, so this cannot yet be judged right or wrong. -
Spending on seniors reaching ~60% of all U.S. tax revenues by ~2048
This is a long-run forecast with a target around 2048. We are still more than 20 years away from that date, so it is too early to evaluate whether this will come true. -
Social Security + Medicare + Medicaid rising from ~12% of GDP (around 2023) to ~24% of GDP by ~2048
Current CBO and similar projections still only extend partway and are subject to revision, and 2048 has not arrived. This part of the prediction is also inherently long-term and not yet testable.
Because all three components refer to dates that are either in a wide future window (2025–2035) or specifically around 2048, and those dates have not yet passed, the overall prediction cannot be definitively assessed at this time.
Therefore, the correct classification is "inconclusive" (too early).