It’s too early to definitively judge a 5–10 year holding-period prediction made in April 2023, because we are only about 2.5 years into that window.

What we can say so far:

• The San Francisco office market remains deeply distressed. Q4 2024 vacancy was still about 30.2%, even as Colliers declared the market had just reached its trough and only begun a tentative recovery. (colliers.com)
• By Q3 2025, vacancy was still around 31.8%, with availability above 35% and broker commentary that a “significant amount of space must be absorbed before a meaningful recovery can take hold.” (cresa.com)
• Mid‑2025 estimates show asking office rents down roughly 30% from their 2019 peak, and top-tier buildings still carrying vacancy rates above 25%, indicating values and cash flows have not recovered to levels that would make many distressed 2023 tower buys clearly successful yet. (mmcginvest.com)
• A San Francisco Controller’s Office analysis suggests office property values may not return to pre‑pandemic levels until after 2034, implying a decade‑plus recovery path from 2024—consistent with a multi‑year, not quick, rebound. (sfchronicle.com)
• Distressed Class A office trades at large discounts continue (e.g., a major Financial District complex sold around half the prior loan value in 2025), underscoring ongoing stress in exactly the kind of large towers the prediction referenced. (hughesmarino.com)

These data all support the spirit of Sacks’s claim that buyers of heavily vacant towers in 2023 would not see a rapid rebound, and that a long hold is likely required. However, the specific horizon of 5–10 years (i.e., recovery by roughly 2028–2033) cannot yet be confirmed or falsified, since those dates are still in the future.

Therefore, the correct classification today is “inconclusive (too early)”: the prediction is consistent with current conditions and official forecasts, but it has not yet reached the point where it can be definitively judged right or wrong.