Using the official arbiter of U.S. business cycles, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the last declared recession ran from February 2020 (peak) to April 2020 (trough), and NBER lists no subsequent peaks or troughs—meaning no new recession has been dated through at least late 2025. (nber.org) Real GDP growth was solidly positive in 2023 (around 2.5–3.1% for the year), indicating expansion rather than contraction. (reuters.com) Available data and commentary for 2024–2025 likewise show continued—if slower—growth and only a single quarter of mild contraction in Q1 2025, which analysts explicitly note does not constitute a recession. (desjardins.com) Because no NBER-defined recession occurred in the "near term" after April 2023 or during the 2023 economic cycle, Sacks’s prediction that the U.S. was “headed for…a recession” in that window did not come true.