Chamath’s normalized prediction was that, starting in 2023 and through at least the 2024–2025 cycle, the U.S. would cease to be a viable jurisdiction for major crypto businesses and most meaningful crypto innovation and company formation would move abroad. The evidence through late 2025 points the other way.

1. The U.S. remains the single largest country hub for crypto developers. Electric Capital’s 2024 geography data shows the U.S. still has the largest share of crypto developers of any country (~19% of global developers), even though its share has fallen over time and Asia is now the top continent by region. (developerreport.com) That is a loss of dominance, not an industry that is “dead.”

2. U.S.-headquartered crypto companies still attract the most venture capital. Galaxy Digital’s VC reports for 2024 show that in both Q1 and Q4 2024, companies headquartered in the U.S. accounted for roughly 37% of all crypto deals and about 43–46% of all crypto VC capital—more than any other country. (galaxy.com) A jurisdiction that continues to lead in deal count and capital raised has clearly not become non‑viable for building new crypto businesses.

3. Regulation has moved toward integration, not exclusion.

   • The SEC approved 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024 and then approved exchange applications for spot Ether ETFs in May 2024, integrating the two largest cryptoassets into mainstream U.S. securities markets. (apnews.com)
   • In September 2025 the SEC adopted generic listing standards that make it easier and faster to launch a broader range of crypto ETFs, which industry sees as a major structural win. (investopedia.com)
   • Congress passed, and the president signed, the GENIUS Act in July 2025, establishing a national regulatory framework for payment stablecoins—explicitly aimed at making the U.S. a leader in stablecoin and digital dollar infrastructure. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • A 2025 executive order created a U.S. Strategic Bitcoin Reserve and a digital asset stockpile, with the administration publicly stating it wants the U.S. to be the global “crypto capital.” (en.wikipedia.org) These moves are inconsistent with a country where crypto is “dead” or fundamentally non‑viable.

4. Large U.S. crypto firms are not fleeing; several are expanding domestically.

   • Coinbase remains the dominant exchange in the U.S., with about 41% of North American crypto activity and $234 billion in quarterly volume in 2025, and is adding regulated products like CFTC‑compliant perpetual futures for U.S. customers. (coinlaw.io)
   • Circle, issuer of USDC, completed a U.S. IPO on the NYSE in June 2025 at a multibillion‑dollar valuation, with USDC still the second‑largest stablecoin. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Kraken, a U.S.-based exchange, continues to rank among the larger global exchanges by volume, and in 2025 the SEC agreed in principle to dismiss its enforcement case with no penalties or structural changes—hardly a signal that the U.S. is unworkable for major exchanges. (en.wikipedia.org)
   • Major non‑U.S. players are re‑entering and investing in the U.S. market: for example, OKX announced a relaunch in the U.S. in 2025 with a new headquarters in San Jose, explicitly citing an improving U.S. regulatory environment. (cointelegraph.com)

5. Innovation and company formation are globalizing, but not concentrated “outside the U.S.” at the expense of viability here. Developer and startup activity has clearly become more geographically distributed—Asia and emerging markets have gained share and some projects choose offshore hubs. (developerreport.com) Yet the U.S. still leads by country in developers and VC dollars, continues to produce heavily funded new L1s and infrastructure projects, and now anchors some of the largest regulated crypto capital markets through ETFs and listed companies.

Taken together, by late 2025 the U.S. is no longer as dominant as it once was and did go through a hostile regulatory phase—but it demonstrably has not ceased to be a viable jurisdiction for major crypto businesses, nor has “most meaningful” innovation obviously moved elsewhere. The prediction that “crypto is dead in America” and that the U.S. would effectively lose its viability for major crypto operations through the 2024–2025 cycle is therefore wrong.