As of November 30, 2025, there is not enough elapsed time or measurable data to judge this prediction.

1. 10x total value vs. the internet era

   • The "internet era" typically refers to a 20–30 year period (mid‑1990s through 2010s) that saw the creation of trillions of dollars of equity value and massive productivity changes.
   • The current generative‑AI wave effectively began around late 2022–2023 with systems like ChatGPT and rapid investment into foundation models and AI infrastructure. Any claim that this wave will ultimately generate 10x the value of the internet era can only be evaluated over decades, not ~2.5 years.
   • While AI‑related public firms (e.g., Nvidia, major cloud providers) and a few private companies have seen huge increases in market cap, there is no accepted, comprehensive measurement yet of total AI-related value creation comparable to the mature internet era.

2. Index-style investing in AI startups will lose money overall, with a few big winners

   • Venture and startup outcomes are power‑law distributed in general; historically, broad index‑like baskets of early‑stage startups tend to underperform the few outliers that dominate returns, but hard data on this specific AI wave is not yet available.
   • Most 2023–2025 AI startup financings are still in early stages; exits (IPOs, large acquisitions, or write‑downs) are only beginning. Until full return distributions for this AI "vintage" are known—likely many years from now—it is impossible to say whether a broad “AI startup index” would lose money overall or not.

Because both parts of the prediction concern long‑run, cycle‑level outcomes that play out over a decade or more, the available evidence by late 2025 is insufficient to confirm or falsify them.