ALL INPredictions
Last updated Nov 29, 2025
Episodes / E125: SpaceX launch, Fox News settlement, "Zombie-corn" exodus to AI, late-stage implosion
Back
Friedberg @ 01:19:11Right
marketsventure
After April 2023, there will be multiple further major negative valuation events (e.g., large write-downs, bankruptcies, or distressed financings) for tech/biotech companies that went public or raised money at peak 2020–2021 valuations, beyond what had already occurred by that date.
it's still. Yeah, I think you're right. Chamath is probably a another hammer to drop. [01:19:11.150]: Multiple hammers.View on YouTube
Explanation

Friedberg’s claim was that, after April 2023, there would be multiple additional major negative valuation events (large write‑downs, bankruptcies, distressed financings) among tech/biotech firms that IPO’d or raised money at peak 2020–2021 valuations. That’s what happened.

Examples:

  1. WeWork (tech / SPAC IPO 2021)

    • Peak private valuation about $47B; went public via SPAC in 2021 at a much lower valuation.
    • Filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in November 2023 with an equity value under $50M, a near‑total wipeout from peak, explicitly noted as a collapse from its earlier multibillion valuation. (forbes.com)

  2. Better.com / Better Home & Finance (fintech, SoftBank‑backed, 2020–21 peak valuation)

    • Raised at ~$6B–$7.7B valuation in 2020–2021 and planned a $7.7B SPAC listing in 2021.
    • When the SPAC finally closed in August 2023, the stock collapsed more than 90% on debut (from ~$17+ for the SPAC to nearly $1), leaving the public valuation a tiny fraction of the boom‑time number. (cnbc.com)

  3. Byju’s (edtech, late‑stage private tech, peak 2022 valuation ≈ $22B)

    • Once valued around $22B in 2022.
    • By late 2023 Prosus marked its stake below $3B, and in its 2024 financial year it fully wrote off its 9.6% stake—effectively taking the equity value to zero from the perspective of a major investor, citing a “significant decline in value.” (reuters.com)

  4. Biotech: record wave of bankruptcies, including recent 2020–21 IPOs

    • Industry data show 2023 hit a 10‑year high for biotech bankruptcies, with 18 companies filing—more than any year since 2010, after a 2020–2021 IPO surge. (thepharmanavigator.com)
    • One concrete example: Zymergen, which went public via IPO in April 2021, ultimately filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in October 2023 and moved to liquidate in early 2024—another post‑boom collapse of a 2021 IPO biotech. (en.wikipedia.org)

These are just a few clear cases; broader analyses of SPACs and venture‑backed firms also document a wave of post‑2020/21‑boom bankruptcies and near‑wipeout valuations in 2023–2024. (ft.com)

Given the number and scale of such events occurring after April 2023, Friedberg’s prediction that there would be “multiple hammers” still to drop on peak‑era tech/biotech valuations is right.