Evidence since April 2023 matches Chamath’s directional call on both sides of his claim.

1. U.S. LP capital into VC/PE has been constrained

• NVCA data show U.S. VC fundraising fell sharply from the 2021–22 boom: firms raised about $66.9B in 2023 and $76.8B in 2024, well below 2022 levels, with cautious LP behavior and large amounts of undeployed capital.(nvca.org)
• Commentary on 2024 fundraising notes it was one of the weakest years in a decade (only 508 funds raised capital), blaming LPs’ reluctance to commit more money because exits and distributions have been poor.(eisneramper.com)
• The Financial Times reports the number of active U.S. VC firms has fallen by over 25% since 2021, and that many LPs—especially for smaller and newer funds—have withdrawn or reduced support due to weak exits.(ft.com)
• A report summarized by The Information (drawing on PitchBook/NVCA data) highlights that U.S. venture firms raised about $67B from pensions, endowments and other LPs in 2023, down roughly 60% from $173B in 2022, confirming that traditional U.S. dollar LP flows have become much harder to secure.(theinformation.com)

2. Gulf SWFs—especially PIF—have become major sources of capital for top-tier global funds

• Global SWF and multiple press reports show GCC sovereign wealth funds (PIF, ADIA, Mubadala, QIA, etc.) have dominated global sovereign dealmaking since 2022, accounting for around 40% of global SWF transactions and managing roughly $4.9T in AUM in 2024, projected to rise significantly by 2030.(arabnews.com)
• Saudi Arabia’s PIF was the world’s most active sovereign investor in 2023, deploying about $31.6B across 49 deals, an increase of ~33% year-on-year while most other state investors cut spending.(gulfnews.com)
• A 2025 legal/market memo from Skadden notes that GCC SWFs’ capital is expected to roughly double by 2030 and that they are regularly sought out as co‑investment partners and limited partners in private market funds, confirming their role as core LPs for global PE/VC managers.(skadden.com)
• Reporting on PIF’s Sanabil (a PIF-backed investment arm) shows that by 2023 it publicly listed investments or LP relationships with dozens of top U.S. VC and PE firms, including Andreessen Horowitz, Coatue, Founders Fund, KKR, General Atlantic and Bain Capital, and that it receives heavy inbound interest from U.S. founders and VCs seeking capital.(observer.com)
• Reuters and other outlets describe PIF anchoring new fund platforms with major global managers like BlackRock and Goldman Sachs Asset Management, committing billions as the cornerstone LP for Gulf-focused private credit and equity funds—classic “replacement capital” behavior from a sovereign fund stepping into an LP role.(reuters.com)
• In parallel, Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala has surged to become the most active SWF by deal volume in 2024, with a large tilt toward private equity, AI and private credit, and has taken big stakes or partnerships with global asset managers (e.g., Silver Rock, Fortress), again underscoring Gulf funds’ centrality as capital providers to leading alternative managers.(ft.com)

Putting this together: since April 2023, (a) traditional U.S. LPs have indeed been more constrained and slower to re-up VC/PE commitments, while (b) Saudi PIF and other Gulf SWFs have aggressively expanded as LPs and strategic capital partners to top-tier global venture and private funds, and are now widely described as key sources of capital for those managers. That matches the direction and essence of Chamath’s prediction, so it is best judged right, even though the exact degree of “replacement” is qualitative rather than precisely measurable.