Sacks @ 01:15:24Wrong
politicsgovernment
When the facts of Bob Lee’s April 2023 killing in San Francisco become known, it will turn out that he was randomly stabbed by a psychotic homeless person with a substantial prior arrest record who had repeatedly been released back onto the streets under lenient, decarceration-oriented criminal justice policies.
we don't know exactly what happened yet, but I think we suspect, and I would bet dollars to dimes, that the story is very similar to a case we had in LA recently, that Brianna Kupfer case where a young woman was basically stabbed for no reason by a psychotic homeless person who had been through the revolving door of the jail and criminal justice system, who could have been locked up, who was arrested multiple times but was not kept locked up because of this push for decarceration.View on YouTube
Explanation
The prediction described Bob Lee’s killing as a random street stabbing by a psychotic homeless person with a substantial prior arrest record, repeatedly released under lenient decarceration policies.
Public reporting and the subsequent trial show a very different picture:
- Killer’s identity and status: Police arrested Nima Momeni, a Bay Area IT/tech consultant and business owner, not a homeless person. (en.wikipedia.org)
- Relationship to Lee: Authorities stated that Lee and Momeni knew each other, and the killing was not a random street crime. (washingtonpost.com)
- Motive and circumstances: Prosecutors argued that Momeni stabbed Lee after a personal dispute involving Momeni’s sister and her alleged drug-related assault, luring Lee to a secluded area and attacking him with a kitchen knife. This was framed as a planned, personal confrontation, not an unprovoked attack by a stranger. (fortune.com)
- Criminal history: Reported records show only a 2011 misdemeanor switchblade charge for Momeni, not a long “revolving door” history of arrests and releases characteristic of the prediction. (cbsnews.com)
- Political narrative rejected: Multiple outlets explicitly noted that the initial narrative of a random, homelessness-linked street killing in a “crime-ridden” San Francisco was dispelled once Momeni was arrested and his connection to Lee became clear. (washingtonpost.com)
Because the actual facts contradict every key element of the prediction (randomness, homelessness, psychosis, extensive prior record, decarceration-driven release), the prediction is wrong.