The prediction covers 10–20 years from 2023, so as of November 2025 we are only ~2.5 years into the window. That’s not enough time to determine whether AI will avoid causing major long‑term displacement of software developers.

Evidence so far is mixed but broadly consistent with Jason’s view in the short run:

• U.S. "computer programmer" roles (a narrower, more routine coding category) have dropped by more than 25% over two years, with generative AI cited as one contributing factor, though macroeconomics and offshoring also matter. However, the same reporting notes that software developer roles have remained comparatively stable and are more insulated. (washingtonpost.com)
• BLS-based analyses project employment in the broader professional, scientific and technical services sector (including software development and related tech jobs) to grow about 10.5% from 2023–2033, and find no clear evidence that AI will cause widespread net job losses in this sector. (investopedia.com)
• Current BLS projections still show positive, above-average growth for software developers/engineers (roughly 15–17% between 2024 and 2034), even as the separate "computer programmer" category is projected to decline. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Multiple recent analyses argue that AI is reshaping and automating tasks rather than eliminating most developer roles, with AI expected to change what developers do (more architecture, oversight, and AI integration) rather than erase demand for human software engineers. (netcorpsoftwaredevelopment.com)

Overall, AI has begun to reduce certain lower-level coding roles, but there is no wholesale elimination of software development jobs yet, and medium‑term projections still show rising demand. Because the prediction is about conditions over the entire next 10–20 years, it cannot yet be definitively judged as right or wrong, so the status is inconclusive (too early).