As of November 30, 2025 (a bit under three years since the March 31, 2023 episode), Google’s Bard/Gemini products have not overtaken ChatGPT in overall consumer usage, but the prediction’s time window (“within a few years”) is vague enough that it hasn’t clearly expired yet.

On direct consumer usage metrics, ChatGPT remains far ahead:

• Similarweb’s August 2025 ranking of AI tools shows ChatGPT with ~5.85 billion website visits and 388M monthly active app users versus Google Gemini’s ~723M visits and 47.6M MAUs; ChatGPT is explicitly called “the most popular AI tool in 2025,” with much higher user stickiness than Gemini.【1search0】
• Market‑share estimates based on website visits consistently put ChatGPT at ~80%+ of the global AI chatbot market, with Google Gemini at only ~2–3% as of mid‑2025.【1search2】2search4】1search7】
• Other traffic and usage analyses in 2025 likewise show ChatGPT handling billions of monthly visits and hundreds of millions of weekly active users, dwarfing Gemini’s traffic.【1search3【2search1】2news14】

On strategic importance in the AI assistant market, evidence again shows ChatGPT still leading as the primary standalone chatbot, while Gemini is an important but smaller competitor:

• Industry overviews find ChatGPT with roughly 60% of the broader generative‑AI/chatbot market, versus low‑teens share for Gemini depending on how the market is defined, still leaving OpenAI in the dominant position.【2search0】2search6】
• Analyses comparing the two note that ChatGPT dominates in native app engagement and direct chatbot usage, while Google leverages Gemini via integration into Search, Android, and Workspace to increase reach, but this has not translated into overtaking ChatGPT in core chatbot usage.【2news13】2news15】

Because the prediction was that “within a few years” of March 31, 2023, Google would “roll” (i.e., overtake) ChatGPT, and we are still within a plausible interpretation of “a few years” (e.g., 3–4+ years), it is too early to say it has definitively failed. What we can say is that, so far, the data show the opposite of the predicted outcome: ChatGPT continues to dominate usage and mindshare, while Gemini has grown but has not surpassed it.