The prediction described a June 2023 scenario in which (a) Congress would fail to agree on a timely debt‑ceiling increase due to a hardline Republican stance, and (b) the U.S. would therefore technically default on some federal obligations, causing severe market turmoil.

What actually happened:

• Facing an early‑June “X‑date,” President Biden and Speaker McCarthy negotiated the Fiscal Responsibility Act of 2023, which suspended the debt ceiling until January 1, 2025. The House passed it on May 31, 2023, the Senate on June 1, and Biden signed it on June 3, 2023.(en.wikipedia.org)
• This deal explicitly aimed to avert default, and contemporaneous reporting characterized the outcome as a crisis averted and stated that the United States would not be defaulting on its debt.(thefiscaltimes.com)
• Analyses of the episode and subsequent commentary continue to treat 2023 as another near‑miss debt‑ceiling crisis: the ceiling was reached, extraordinary measures were used, but no default actually occurred; instead, the episode contributed to a later Fitch downgrade of U.S. credit quality, not to a June 2023 default.(washingtonpost.com)

Because Congress ultimately did reach an agreement in time and the U.S. did not technically default on its obligations in June 2023, the concrete scenario described in the prediction did not materialize. The conditional causal claim (“if no deal, then default and turmoil”) is broadly consistent with mainstream analysis, but the real‑world event it was tied to—actual default and meltdown in mid‑2023—did not happen. Therefore, evaluated as a prediction about what would occur in that period, it is wrong.