Jason @ 01:25:39Wrong
politicsconflict
The Russia–Ukraine war will end because the United States will stop funding Ukraine; specifically, U.S. political and public support for sending tens of billions of dollars per year to Ukraine will collapse such that this level of funding will not continue into years 2–3 of the war (i.e., it will substantially decline or cease by roughly 2024–2025), leading to an end of the conflict.
The war is going to end there because we're not funding this. And American the American public is not going to want to see tens of billions of dollars go into Ukraine and to to fund this war in year 2 or 3.View on YouTube
Explanation
War outcome:
- As of late November 2025, large-scale fighting in Ukraine is ongoing (e.g., Russian offensives around Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, Sumy/Dnipropetrovsk fronts and repeated missile/drone attacks). (aljazeera.com)
- There is no peace settlement or clear “end of the war,” so the claim that the war “is going to end” on this timeline has not materialized.
U.S. funding levels ("we’re not funding this" / “tens of billions” in years 2–3):
- Congress has appropriated about $174.2 billion in Ukraine-related emergency funding across FY2022–FY2024. (congress.gov)
- A major new package, the Ukraine Security Supplemental Appropriations Act, 2024 (part of Public Law 118‑50), provided about $60.8 billion more for Ukraine and related regional support in April 2024, well into “year 3” of the war. (appropriations.house.gov)
- Tracking of donors shows the U.S. remained Ukraine’s largest supporter through June 30, 2025, having allocated roughly €114.6 billion (~$134B) in military, financial, and humanitarian aid since 2022—sustained “tens of billions” over multiple years rather than a collapse. (aljazeera.com)
- While there was a months‑long political deadlock in late 2023–early 2024 that temporarily slowed new U.S. aid, it ended with the large April 2024 supplemental, and significant funding has continued rather than stopping. (reuters.com)
U.S. public and political support:
- Polling in 2024–2025 shows growing partisan division and more Americans saying the U.S. is giving “too much” support, especially among Republicans, but not a wholesale collapse of support: views are split among “too much,” “about right,” and “not enough.” (pewresearch.org)
- By early–mid 2025, substantial portions of the public still favor continuing or even increasing aid, and many believe the U.S. has a responsibility to help Ukraine, indicating sustained—if contested—support rather than the near‑total rejection implied in the prediction. (pewresearch.org)
Causal claim (“war is going to end there because we’re not funding this”):
- The war has not ended, and U.S. funding has not ceased or even dropped below “tens of billions” in the 2024–2025 window; instead, a large new package was enacted in 2024 and total commitments through mid‑2025 remain very high. (congress.gov)
Because (1) the war has not ended, and (2) U.S. aid did not collapse but continued at tens‑of‑billions‑per‑year scale into years 2–3 and beyond, Jason’s prediction—both on mechanism and outcome—is wrong.