Friedberg’s prediction had two main parts: (1) some venture funds would shut down after the SVB crisis, and (2) many already‑distressed portfolio companies would not get bridge financing, leading to an accelerated wave of shutdowns in the rest of 2023. Both are broadly borne out by subsequent data and reporting, even though the causes were a mix of the pre‑existing downturn plus the SVB shock.

1. Venture funds shutting down

• A 2024 Venture Capital Archive report estimates that at least 9% of VC funds ceased operations in 2023, and that by 2024 a total of about 11.1% of funds had shut down, with many others effectively becoming “zombie” firms. (scribd.com)
• The Financial Times reports that the number of active U.S. VC firms fell by more than 25% from a 2021 peak (8,315) to 6,175 in 2024, and explicitly cites fund closures such as Countdown Capital (winding down and returning capital) and Foundry Group (no new funds) as examples of firms giving up in the tougher post‑2021, post‑SVB environment. (ft.com)
  These are exactly the kinds of outcomes Friedberg described when he said “funds could shut down coming out of this.”

2. Distressed startups not getting bridges and shutting down faster in 2023

• Multiple analyses describe 2023 as a “mass extinction event” for startups, with about 3,200 startups that had collectively raised around $27 billion shutting down in 2023, according to PitchBook data cited by Business Insider and summarized by other outlets. These sources explicitly tie the wave of failures to a sharp pullback in venture funding and greater investor caution, not to operational mistakes alone. (tech.yahoo.com)
• A TechCrunch/TechCrunch‑echoed data set via Carta shows 769 U.S. startups shutting down in 2023 (Carta customers that dissolved or went bankrupt), with shutdowns subsequently rising further in 2024, and commentary that the increase is driven by macro conditions and a lack of available venture funding in 2023–24. (techcrunch.com)
• TechCrunch’s November 2023 analysis of the venture market (“The time to triage is over”) notes that VCs had spent much of the downturn using reserves to “triage” portfolios with bridge capital, but that this was no longer sustainable: funds “can’t put resources toward companies that they know won’t produce a return,” and partners are now letting weaker companies sell or shut down instead. The piece predicts “a really rough period of startup shutdowns” as that reality plays out. (techcrunch.com)
• Broader 2023 commentary and data show a dramatic funding slowdown (e.g., global VC down roughly half year‑over‑year, and significant drops in deal value and fundraising), with capital concentrating in better‑performing companies and a large overhang of 2020–21‑vintage startups running out of runway. (digitalnative.tech)

Putting this together:

• There is clear, quantitative evidence that a non‑trivial share of venture funds shut down or went dormant in 2023–24, in line with the prediction that some funds would not survive the post‑SVB, higher‑rate environment. (scribd.com)
• There is also strong evidence that many distressed startups failed in 2023 because they could not raise new capital or bridge rounds, and that VCs explicitly shifted away from propping up weaker portfolio companies—exactly what Friedberg meant by saying that ~“75% distressed” companies were “done for” and “no one’s going to step in and bridge them,” leading to an acceleration of shutdowns as “cash is king.” (tech.yahoo.com)

While not every detail (like the informal “75% distressed” threshold) is directly measurable, the direction and substance of his forecast match observed outcomes: consolidation and closures among venture funds, and a clear, funding‑driven spike in startup shutdowns over the remaining months of 2023. Therefore, the prediction is best classified as right.