Meta has clearly started returning large amounts of cash since early 2023, but the 4–5 year window Chamath referred to (roughly 2023–2027/28) is not over yet, so we cannot say whether "several hundred billion" will actually be reached.

Key facts so far:

• Share repurchases 2023–2025 (so far)
  • In 2023 Meta repurchased and retired 92 million shares for about $20.0B. (sec.gov)
  • In the first nine months of 2024 it repurchased 65 million shares for about $29.8B. (sec.gov)
  • In the first nine months of 2025 it repurchased 40 million shares for about $26.3B. (sec.gov)
  → That’s at least ~$76B of buybacks from Jan 1, 2023 through Sept 30, 2025, ignoring any Q4 2024 repurchases not broken out yet.

• Dividends added on top of buybacks
  • Meta initiated its first regular cash dividend in early 2024 at $0.50 per share and paid roughly $5.1B of dividends in 2024. (sec.gov)
  • In 2025 it raised the quarterly dividend to $0.525 and paid about $4.0B of dividends in the first nine months of 2025. (sec.gov)
  → Combined 2024–9M 2025 dividends are a bit over $9B.

• Total capital returned since 2023
  • Adding the known numbers, Meta has already returned ≈$85B+ to shareholders from Jan 1, 2023 through Sept 30, 2025 (≈$76B buybacks + ≈$9B dividends), with additional Q4 2025 activity still to come. (sec.gov) • Over the last decade as a whole, Trefis estimates Meta has returned about $178B via buybacks and dividends, underlining that "hundreds of billions" over multi‑year periods is plausible for this company, but that figure is for 10 years, not just 2023–2028. (trefis.com)

• Run‑rate and remaining authorization
  • Recent annualized repurchase pace is on the order of $25–35B per year, plus several billion per year in dividends, and Meta’s board has repeatedly topped up repurchase authorizations (e.g., +$40B in Jan 2023; +$50B in Jan 2024). (sec.gov)
  • As of Sept 30, 2025, about $25B remained authorized for future buybacks under the existing program, and the company explicitly notes that the timing and amount of future repurchases and dividends are discretionary and not guaranteed. (sec.gov)

Why this is inconclusive rather than right or wrong:

• Chamath’s normalized claim is that between roughly 2023 and 2028, Meta would return "on the order of several hundred billion" dollars to shareholders. By late 2025, the company has returned on the order of $100B or a bit less for that specific window—large, but still well short of the $200B+ most people would read as “several hundred billion.”
• However, there are still around 2–3 years left in the forecast horizon. Given Meta’s current cash generation, existing authorization, and history of large top‑ups to its buyback program, it is plausible that cumulative returns for 2023–2028 could eventually exceed $200B. At the same time, Meta’s filings stress that neither buybacks nor dividends are obligated, and capital‑spending or regulatory shocks could reduce future payouts. (sec.gov)

Because the relevant period is still ongoing and future capital‑return decisions are inherently uncertain, the prediction cannot yet be judged as clearly right or clearly wrong; the evidence to date only shows that the company is on a path that could reach that scale, not that it definitively will.