The prediction is framed as a relative probability update: that, as of early February 2023, a U.S. soft landing in calendar year 2023 was "quite a bit" more likely than it had seemed a few weeks earlier, based on the then-current labor data.

What actually happened in 2023:

• The U.S. did not enter a recession in 2023; the NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee still dates the last recession as ending in April 2020, with no new recession peak or trough after that. (nber.org)
• Real U.S. GDP grew about 2.5% in 2023, up from 1.9% in 2022, according to the BEA’s third estimate. (bea.gov)
• The labor market remained strong, with unemployment averaging about 3.6% in 2023 and employment at record levels. (en.wikipedia.org)
• Many retrospective analyses describe 2023 as a year in which the U.S. economy avoided the widely forecast recession and, in effect, achieved or approached a soft landing (growth continued while inflation fell). (cnbc.com)

However, the prediction we are scoring is not "there will be a soft landing in 2023"; it is the narrower statement that the odds of a 2023 soft landing were higher in early February 2023 than a month earlier. That is a claim about how underlying probabilities (or at least informed beliefs) changed over a one‑month window.

On that narrower question, the evidence is mixed and subjective:

• Late‑2022 economist surveys still put high odds on a 2023 recession (e.g., one Bankrate survey found an average estimate of a 64% chance of recession in 2023). (bankrate.com)
• Around February 2023, commentary was divided: some analysts argued a soft landing was still possible, while others said the "door to a soft landing is rapidly closing" as inflation data stayed high and the Fed signaled further tightening. (cnbc.com)

Because we have no direct, objective measure of how the true probability of a soft landing changed between early January and early February 2023—and expert views at the time were not uniformly shifting in one clear direction—the claim that the odds were "quite a bit better" than a month earlier cannot be cleanly classified as right or wrong, even though the eventual outcome (no 2023 recession with continued growth) is consistent with a soft landing.

Given that 2023 is over (so it’s not "too early"), but the prediction concerns an inherently unobservable probability shift over a short horizon, the fairest judgment is:

• Result: ambiguous – the statement about improved odds cannot be definitively verified or falsified from available data, despite the favorable eventual outcome.